Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Thought process that leads to the scrips I own

Many people have tread this path , and I am only following the path they have laid , with the dream that I can make significant inroads in this path. 

The aim is to build a safe stock picking strategy and the caveat at this point is , I have laid out the steps I have followed so far to pick my stocks , and the purpose is to fine tune the strategy via multiple iterations 
  • First step in my safe mode strategy is to pick up the stocks that is part of Sensex or Nifty. Why so? 
    • Scrip selection criteria is based on the  free float methodologythe index reflects the market trends and takes into consideration only those shares available for  trading in the market (i.e. floats are stocks which are not held by promoters and associated companies )
    • For stocks to be included in benchmark index the impact cost of trading the scrip must be on an average 0.50% or less during last six months of trading.
    • Index constituents are chosen in such a way that there is no heavy concentration on any particular sector.
    • Float-adjusted market capitalization: ensures companies eligible for inclusion have at least twice the market cap of the current smallest index constituent
    • Index is reviewed semi-annually to ensure the above-mentioned criteria is met by scrips 
  • Next step  is to read the company description - what it deals with, where all the company has presence etc. Most of the time with our experience we can identify whether the company has any competitive advantage over it peers or not and in some instance we need to do more comprehensive reading to find out how the company would stand out . For beginners the red herring prospectus can be the first step to begin.
  • The third step is to do a basic sanity check. What I follow is to check the Net Income for past 3 years. Scrips go out of my list if they don't have a decent history to boast about. Parameters which I use as general indicators for this are 
    • P/E ratio 
    • P/B ratio: Intuitively we know we can start off with scrips that have low P/B values. How do we know what this "low" means? I use the industry benchmark, check for the number of years the company has been functional  and  then decide my threshold.
    • Debt to Equity ratio 
    • Return on average equity
    • Beta
 Technical Indicators  I follow:
  • Bollinger Bands 
    • According to some studies, Bollinger bands must contain 88-89% of the price movements which makes the move outside the band significant. 
    • Prices are relatively high if it's above the upper band and relatively low if it is below the lower band. But again the decision would require certain discretion like looking at the past patterns and observing the movements outside the band.
  • Relative Strength Indicator 
    • Shows how strongly a stock is moving in its current direction. 
    • Above 70 levels indicate overbought and below 30 levels indicate oversell in scrips 
  • Put-Call Ratio can be used to gauge market sentiments about the scrip.
  • Volume traded
  • FII shareholdings 

 In Outliers , Malcolm Gladwell points out that to master any art and to attain world class status in it ; minimum 10,000 hours of consistent effort would be required. The pursuit of my passion has begun , and this means there is still a long way to that mastery.
From all the money masters I have read about, what I have understood is : Investing is going to be a fun journey provided we treat it as a science experiment with some pre-determined sanity steps and logic to follow rather than tossing the coin , and waiting for the lady luck to shine.  The purpose of my journey would be to collate , consolidate , use various permutations and combinations to really become that -" The Intelligent Investor".



No comments:

Post a Comment